Author Topic: Has this been an overreaction?  (Read 573 times)

Offline Mamushka

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Has this been an overreaction?
« on: April 15, 2020, 03:54:27 PM »
Just want to post some numbers here, all data is from the CDC:

USA Flu data for last 6 months:
410,000 to 740,000 hospitalizations
24,000 to 62,000 deaths

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

COVID
40,590 hospitalizations (12.3 per 100,000 - population 330M)
24,582 deaths

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

And just for perspective, secondhand smoke deaths:
41,300 deaths/year

https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/secondhand_smoke/general_facts/index.htm


Reasonably "social distancing" has reduced COVID deaths, but it should have also lowered flu deaths/hospitalizations too.

Questions: Was it wise to put literally millions of people out of work to "flatten the curve" for COVID? If so why don't we do it for the flu? Look at those flu hospitalization numbers even as social distancing has been enacted it is 10 to 1 over COVID in the best case and nearly 20 to 1 in the worst case.

So if it was worth it to put people out of work, drain peoples savings, destroy many small businesses in order to save lives why don't we just make smoking illegal and save 40+k lives a year, would that not be worth it also?

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Offline RussG

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Re: Has this been an overreaction?
« Reply #1 on: April 15, 2020, 04:20:10 PM »
We'll probably never know.
I guess it would be worth it if we had crystal balls and it was one of or more of our loved ones threatened.

It's easy to say someone we don't know is or isn't worth it. When people just start comparing death numbers it dehumanizes it all.  Maybe that's the point.

Regardless notice those at the top not only not really suffering but many are actually benefiting from this.
The middle class is getting decimated though as we fight for the scraps.

I do believe this is a nice test case scenario or huge experiment to see how the proles, peasants, peons, and slaves react and behave.

That is unless the endgame scenario is now live.


Offline number six

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Re: Has this been an overreaction?
« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2020, 12:16:31 AM »
I think the big problem with Covid is the somewhat random nature of how this effects people.

Healthy people that get the Flu almost never get hospitalized let alone die. However with the Covid it seems like anyone can have a bad reaction. Plenty of younger people are dying from it. So that's tough.

That said the cases in Hillsborough are relatively small given the population so does everyone need to lock down for 2 months? Hard to say. I guess nobody wants even a few hundred deaths on their hands.. ones that probably wouldn't have happened otherwise.

The flu wiping out the elderly or sickly.. that's not really something you can prevent.

Offline WannaTheater

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Re: Has this been an overreaction?
« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2020, 02:22:19 PM »
Interesting comparison, but I think the data should be normalized to be compared. 

From the CDC page https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html, Covid deaths of 24,582 are since reporting started on January 12.  But but the graph shows the massive acceleration didn't really start until about 3/16, which was only 4 weeks ago.  (The first US death was 2/29, at which time there were 25 cases).   

If the death rate continues at ~24K PER MONTH, the flu and secondhand smoke numbers will seem trivial.

Has there been an overreaction?  To some extent, probably.  But I would hope people would rather be cautious than reckless.
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Offline k7

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Re: Has this been an overreaction?
« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2020, 07:53:37 PM »
the reported covid numbers are low. this thing was killing people last year in the US. we just didn't have any clue on what to call those deaths.

and today, the covid numbers are inflated. it's usually pneumonia that is doing the killing, covid 19 gets a check mark.

so hell yes, this reaction is overkill. but what are you going to do?

media is the disease here.

if you're going to get covid, you're going to get it. there's no magical fix date for all of this. and a vaccine being 12 to 18 months out is laughable. they already have a valid, working treatment for covid, but we're spending all this cash/time on testing sick people to see what they're sick of.

the "cure" is getting hushed up until someone can make bank from selling it.
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Offline number six

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Re: Has this been an overreaction?
« Reply #5 on: April 17, 2020, 12:14:56 AM »
I hope they can get the test for anti-bodies out because I think there is a good chance this has already been in the country.

Mid-late December I caught the flu from hell, one of the worst I've ever had. Was completely down for several days. Was that Covid? Might have been.

Online JimB

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Re: Has this been an overreaction?
« Reply #6 on: April 17, 2020, 02:06:21 PM »
Same here.  5 days after staying at a local hotel mid December I had fever and a coughing spell that was worse than anything I’ve had before.  The coughing lasted well beyond the worst of my symptoms.
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Offline number six

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Re: Has this been an overreaction?
« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2020, 01:10:11 PM »
On that line of thinking..

Quote
The Mass. General study took samples from 200 residents on the street in Chelsea, MA. Participants remained anonymous and provided a drop of blood to researchers, who were able to produce a result in ten minutes with a rapid test.

Sixty-four of the participants tested positive – a “sobering” result, according to Thomas Ambrosino, Chelsea’s city manager.

“We've long thought that the reported numbers are vastly under-counting what the actual infection is," Ambrosino told the Boston Globe. “Those reported numbers are based on positive COVID-19 tests, and we're all aware that a very, very small percentage of people in Chelsea and everywhere are getting COVID-19 tests."

So out of 300 random people on the street, 64 were positive.

Could be just purely random on who is effected by it. Many of us may already have it (or have had it). Problem is, how do you know if you are one of the people that's going to have a bad reaction to it?


Offline RussG

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Re: Has this been an overreaction?
« Reply #8 on: April 18, 2020, 01:45:10 PM »
I don't think Covid is BS but look into states that are getting big money per confirmed case:

From a source:
"States are being given government (read: taxpayer) stimulus dollars for each corona case reported.

In Florida, the State receives $132,000 for each reported case of corona. In Nebraska, Minnesota and Montana, the State receives over $300,000 for each reported case of corona. The difference in the amounts received is based on some weird government bureaucrat-created voodoo Medicare formula. The point is, hospitals are being financially rewarded for identifying people as contracting or dying from corona—whether they actually contracted the virus or not.

In the meantime, however, most hospitals are literally sitting empty. There is no mad rush of corona patients lining up for treatment."

My opinion:
The only caveat to counter this is why are tests hard to administer and why are they only testing people in this state that show symptoms?

There are definitive hot spots.
I definitely think the numbers are higher everywhere than reported obviously because there are so few actually tested, but could deaths attributed to corona be listed as such for a money grab?
I wouldn't put it past them. Not in today's world.

Offline k7

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Re: Has this been an overreaction?
« Reply #9 on: April 18, 2020, 01:54:02 PM »
On that line of thinking..

So out of 300 random people on the street, 64 were positive.

Could be just purely random on who is effected by it. Many of us may already have it (or have had it). Problem is, how do you know if you are one of the people that's going to have a bad reaction to it?

200 people. 32%. i don't trust that test either. :)

were they all instantly quarantined for 14 days? if no, why not?

i've had an unexplained dry cough for 13 years. so maybe it's actually CoViD-07?

for all they're doing to flatten the curve, no one's protecting a single nursing home. those probably should be locked down.

at least i'm reminded every 10 minutes with some food commercial about how no one touches the pizza and amazon is a safe work environment that donates to the red cross.

oh, and publix is hiring.
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Offline RussG

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Re: Has this been an overreaction?
« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2020, 03:21:21 PM »
Chris I agree there is no evenness to this.

A beach where you can social distance is closed but food workers are potentially breathing on or touching food they prepare for us to consume in every drive thru.  That's fine.
Certain stores are open and golf courses too!  But can't have people use a boat ramp in certain counties.

The risk to people working in Wal-Marts or Publix has to be staggering.
It would be interesting to see the % cases of those places having infected workers.

Offline Steve O

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Re: Has this been an overreaction?
« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2020, 08:41:03 PM »
I am required to wear a mask at work but no employees at Publix today were wearing masks, including those making the subs.

Offline k7

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Re: Has this been an overreaction?
« Reply #12 on: April 19, 2020, 08:17:24 PM »
i went to lowes 2 weeks ago. 33% of the store workers were wearing masks. so much touchy, feely in a lowes, i imagine the masks don't really matter.

i did not have a mask on. i grabbed the 2 things i needed, checked out, and used hand sanitizer at my car door.

you know any store that is currently open, is  just another mass-gathering location where covid spreads.

if they did this much media on alcohol and deaths from that (self and injuries to others), every liquor store would be shut down within weeks.
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Offline HighProtein

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Re: Has this been an overreaction?
« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2020, 11:30:18 PM »
Quarantine is lockdown of sick people.
Tyranny is lockdown of healthy people.
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