Yeah, this is really starting to look like a worst-case scenario for anyone who lives around Tampa Bay (including me).
Very likely it'll still be category 4 or a strong 3 when it gets here, worse if it stays out just along the coast in the Gulf - the warm water will keep it powerful, and they seem to keep adjusting the track a little West with each update.
If it passes Tampa on the East side it might push water out of the Bay, which would be fine - though still lots of wind damage, rain, etc. - if it passes on the West or right up the middle of the Bay though, it pushes all the water from the Gulf into the Bay, and from the Bay onto land that's going to be very, very bad flooding - like Houston, maybe worse.
I'm in Zone A so going to pick up my parents (they live on a canal that leads out the Bay - not good) and take them to my sister's place in Lutz - she's at least out of the evac zones, though unfortunately she does live next to a small lake. No tidal action at least.
Hope the track changes, or it weakens a lot, or I'm just totally wrong (I certainly hope I'm wrong) - but damn, I think the worst case scenario is that my house will be uninhabitable, so will my office (in a low-lying part of Oldsmar, near the water - and we literally just moved from Dunedin 2 weeks ago), and most of my possessions will be gone - along with many, many other people in exactly the same situation. Out of a job, homeless, etc.
Even the best case scenario looks like some damage, probably no power for a week or more.
Shitballs.
