Using actual data now: We can see the 16th qualifier was 610 points. This means that to qualify a player needed to average 610/8 ~ just over 76 points on all 8 games. This is an average of 12th best score per game. (You can go back to your online scores and see the points + place = 88 guideline for 3rd place and beyond)
The reason the number is not averaging 16th per game to make top 16 is because there are more games available than needed to qualify. If there were exactly 8 games in the bank, then the average would work out to approximately 16th because there is a one to one relationship between the games and ranks.
On the subject of considering qualifying and finals as two tourneys, it almost worked out that how people qualified in the top 16 ended up being how they finished in the actual finals. Doesn’t typically work out that way, though. I can certainly recall tourneys where I was top seed and played awful in finals and conversely qualifying low and finishing high. It happens. That’s why we have finals.
Another key takeaway is this: look at the history of the best players. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY destroys every game, every time and puts up a huge score. It simply is not possible. The better players will typically prevail in the long run, and learn the game as they go. Everybody has a chance to have a breakout game and that might be the game that helps propels you into the final 16.
I’m sure those in attendance experienced the concept of “void and re-queueâ€. After a tourney, looking back sometimes you find your best games happen early. For me from 9-midnight on Saturday was fruitless. I was trying to move into a higher seed from 8th, but could not manage it. I was exhausted. I should have stopped and gotten some rest. (Lesson-playing tired is not a good idea. Still trying to keep this in mind this after 10 years.
I was not in danger of not qualifying, but I wanted to improve to top 4. In fact we see that with many players jockeying. Those just shy of 16 want in, those 9-12 want to be top 8, those 5-8 want to be top 4, those in top 4 want to be 1.
Always a little gamblers fallacy that is hard to fight-next game will do it...The lesson that is easy to say, but hard to implement: sometimes you have to just let it go and let things happen naturally instead of trying to force a result.
And lastly, remember to eat and drink and stay off your feet when not playing. Atticus frequently was reminding me to do this. There were times where I was a mess. I ate some food at Atticus’ insistence and then came back and did well. I recall having to remind him years ago of this at the 2016 States. Have a friend with you at these tourneys and look after each other help each other out
Hopefully those new to the format learned some things, and thought about how to approach the next best game qualifying format. (Pretty sure that will be Free Play Florida).
Thanks for reading, and nice playing with everyone
